Analysis of Y-DNA & mtDNA Results

The results of my DNA have now been received and the problem is to try and analyze what they mean. This does not appear to be an easy task as the results are not what I expected. However, maybe I was expecting to much as the sample size was only one when I received my results but as of 9 May 2005 with a sample size of 2 the results are starting to take shape as expected.

When the results are compared with all others in the Y-Search database with a difference of 1-3 the area and ancestry that comes up is in England and not Germany as I expected. This association with England is most probably due to the movement of early man from Europe into England at the time of the last ice-age (See explanation received from Richard Kraus, link shown below.) Another way of looking at this would be from the point that surnames have only been used recently, approx 700-800 years. If members of a clan of people who were descendants of a common ancestor selected different surnames then the match in DNA values would still be present but the surnames would be those that the different people had selected. From a limited number of examples it appears that this is the situation and it becomes even more severe if the number of people tested is large. In one case, I have seen over 100 matches and only one person had the surname that was expected.

Some people that have been working on the Genographic Project have done work on the Haplogroup-I that our Krause group is part of. Ken Nordtvedt had a very good webpage that showed considerable information on these results, however, it has now disappeared since Ken retired . The answer to the question as to why our Krause group had a Y-Chromosome DNA profile similiar to those in the British Isles has now been answered with the Big-Y 500 DNA test from FTDNA. By doing a complete analysis of the Y-Chromosome, it has been determined that our Krause group split from the Klan of people that went to the British Isles. This split occurred sometime in the period of time from 3,500 to 7,000 years ago. This is determined by the fact that the number of mutations on the Y-Chromosome since the split is between 25 and 50. The Block Tree from my Big-Y test shows these results. My results are shown in the white box that is second from the right side of the screen. The lower portion of the image shows the country of origin for the Earliest Known Ancestor and my line shows the German flag while the others are mostly of English origin.

1. The results are correct but the sample size is to small to give accurate results. More sampling from male descendants of this Krause line must be carried out to determine the connection of Herman Krause's to that of John Krause. An explanation was received from Richard Kraus, coordinator of the Krause DNA Project that covers the ancient history and explains some of the reasons for the results of Y-Search matches. More information has been received from Ken Nordtvedt and is included in this explanation. Recent information of  another person with the same DNA as mine indicates that the correct results were obtained and as other Krause groups are tested, the database will continue to grow. This new Krause line that has a common ancestor to me is now identified as Branch-One-B while my branch has been renamed to Branch-One-A.

Relationship/Age	30-40	60-65	80-90
Grandfather
Father		age 81
Self
Son
Grand-son

Determination of Time to Common Ancestor

FTDNA provides a special service to members who have had their Y-Chromosome DNA tested and if a match is found with others then it is possible to predict the probable time in generations of the common ancestor. This is known as Family Tree DNA Time Predictor (FTDNATiP ) . The following table shows the results of these calculations for the members who have been tested and are closely related. The name designations are for Br-1A, Br-1B, and Br-1C. These are the same names used in the chart that shows the possible divergence where the names are shown as Krause-1A etc.

The results from the FTDNATiP are shown in the following table. Note that the values are all shown as a percent probability. The branch that is being compared is shown as the letter A, B, C, or other letters as more members are tested and found to be part of this group. The number of Markers tested is also shown as some members do not show test results if the genetic distance is beyond a certain number. This is a limit of the FTDNATiP generator. The table has these shown in yellow By using other information, it is possible to generate values but the accuracy may not be the same as those shown with the white background.  The Data for the different branches is summarized and the diagram shown on the next link is an attempt to show the possible divergence of the different branches vs. time and is not meant to be a known fact. A brief explanation on how to read the possible divergence diagram is as follows. If one looks at all the values in the box on the left side they correspond to the DYS#/Allele-value that are thought to be the ones that are the standard for this major branch and change for the different branches. The other boxes show what DYS#/Allele-value that changes and the how these are used to arrive at the final value for the individual branch. Since Allele values change on average every 20 generations then it can be seen that the time frame for this diagram is over an extended time period. The actual change in an Allele value is different for each DYS# and only the average is stated above. It appears that the DYS#'s near the top of the list change at a much slower rate then those in the lower half of the table. This is clearly indicated by the Br-31 person who was tested and found to be Haplogroup R1b. This branch had formerly been thought to be the ancestral line of Br-1C based on speculation but DNA analysis gave the necessary proof that this assumption was incorrect.

To better understand what these percentage values mean, think of the following experiment. If you took three coins, shook them up in a cup or your hand them let them fall on the table. The results would most likely be some would fall with heads up and some with tails up. The probability of all three coins falling with the same side up is 1/8 or 12.5%. Try this little experiment, you might have to do it many times to get all three coins to have the same face up but if you do it enough times the average will be one out of eight. However, you might be lucky and it occurs the first time. That is sort of the same thing that happens with the Y-Chromosome values that change on average every 20 generations or 500 years. Some markers have a different probability of change and all of this is taken into account in the FTDNATiP calculations.

Another way of looking at the percentages as shown in the diagram below on "Percent Probability that Members Tested shared a Common Ancestor within the last N-Generations" is to compare the marks one received in a class when going to school. The class average was most likely about 70 % and the grade that any individual received would be a distribution around this average. If one were to look at the number of persons who received a mark of 70% or less it would be 50% and 100% of the students would have a mark of 100% or less. If one looks at the percentage information in the diagram as shown below for Percent Probability that Members tested shared a Common Ancestor then using members A-E it appears that the 50% level for 37 Markers  is about 11  generations or about 400 years ago if 25 years/generation is assumed. Since this is all based on probabilities then the time period could be much shorter as most of the changes have been in the values near the end of the table that change at a faster rate then those near the top of the table of DNA values.

The following tables show the different branches with the first table showing the genetic distance(The values in the cells indicate the distance for the 12-Marker, 25-Marker, 37-Marker, and 67-Marker tests) and the second one, the probability of a common ancestor in the last N-generations. All combinations are not shown as the table would be very large and additional information would not be gained as the genetic distance is the same in many cases.

N-Generations

Title: Percent Probability that Members Tested shared a Common Ancestor within the last N-Generations

From the table shown above, if one takes the case of A1 and A2(cell is shown in Green) where the descendancy is known and there are only two generations from the common ancestor, the values shown in the table indicate the probability is only 57.86% in 4 generations. The probabilities are the same for A3-A1 but in this case, the common ancestor is 5 generations. The situation for the case of A3 and A2(cell shown in Magenta) is the only case where there is a perfect match of 37/37. Sine the earliest known ancestor (EKA) is 6 in this case, the probability according to the table is between 83.49 and 97.28%. If the tests were extended to 67-Markers it would be interesting to see how the probability changes compared to the 37-Markers!!

mtDNA Results

Results of my mtDNA which gives the lineage of my maternal ancestry shows that the Haplogroup is T2b. The migration route for this line is best shown on the migration routes at the Genographic Project. Information on this is located by clicking on the window showing the Interactive Atlas of the Human Journey. When that screen opens click on the Genetic Markers icon shown at the lower section of the screen and when that screen opens select the "T" Marker by moving the slider down so the T Mitochondrial DNA line is shown and click on that line. The resulting screen shows the branch for T and the migration route. A similiar approach can be used to find the migration route for the M170 line which is for my Y-DNA results.

Results from the mtDNA are shown in the following table.

HVR1 Haplogroup T2b HVR1 differences from Cambridge Reference Sequence 16126C   16172C   16294T   16304C   16519C HVR2 differences from Cambridge Reference Sequence 73G   114T   263G   315.1C

CR differences from CRS 709A 750G 930A 1438G 1888A 2706G 4216C 4769G 4917G 5147A 7028T 8697A 8860G 9254G 10463C 11251G 11719A 11812G 13368A 14233G 14766T 14905A 15326G 15452A 15607G 15928A   Full Genome Sequence Library

At the present time of those with test results in the data-bank, 73 people show the same identical values for the HVR1 results which means that we share a common female ancestor sometime in approx.  the last 3000 years. Only 3 people show a match for the HVR2 with one of these showing a FGS(Full Genomic Sequence Match). One DNA cousin has been found using this method!!

A full study of the T2 Haplogroup has been done using persons(445) who had Full Genome Sequence(FGS) test results. The results of this study, done by Pike, Barton, Bauer, and Kipp, are now available and the 24 page PDF report is now available at the link shown..

Since my maternal grandparents were both from Norfolk Co., England, I have joined the East Anglia Geographic DNA Project. Maybe this will yield some results on the ancestral connections from my mother's side????? To see the lineage of my mothers side at WorldConnect just go to the link shown. My mother and Rosamond Geraldine Andrews were sisters.