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The Aaron Stark Family Chronicles

Y-DNA Genetic Evaluation of the Descendants Aaron Stark [1608-1685]

Page 1

Book 1: Genetic-Genealogy Report

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Discussion Table 5 TMRCA Calculations

This Chart plots the TMRCA Probabilities calculated in Table 5 in the Y-axis; against the generations in the X-axis. The Black curve is the result of Comparing two participants from our population that are a perfect match to the ASMH (A1a was compared to B3b). Any participants in our population who match the ASMH — when compared to each other — will plot the same points on the chart. The BLUE Area is the result of Plotting the Minimum and maximum Probabilities observed in our population that have a genetic distance of 1 relative to the ASMH. Each members TMRCA was calculated and presented in Table 5; each compared to A1a. The minimum plot was a comparison of A1a to A1e; while the maximum plot was a comparison of A1a to A3a.. The probabilities have small differences in value due to the mutations relative to ASMH having occurred at different DYS markers. Similarly, The GREEN area is the minimum and maximum of our population having a Genetic Distance of 2 when compared to the ASMH. The minimum plot is a comparison of A1a to B2b; while the maximum plot is a comparison of A1a to B2a. As for Genetic Distances of 1, those having genetic distances of 2 will differ due to mutations at different DYS Markers. Observe the Area has increased for GD=2 relative to the area for GD=1. This would be an expected result. As genetic distances increase, the areas created by the minimum and maximum should increase. The DARK RED curve is the result of comparing A1n to A1a; this representing the plot of one participant having a genetic distance of 3 relative to the ASMH. In our population, A1n is the only participant having a genetic distance of 3.

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