Lineages and Results of
Y-chromosome DNA Testing for Surname CARMACK
and Variations, such as:
CORMACK, CARMICK, CORMICK, MacCCARMACK, MacCORMACK, McCARMACK, McCORMACK, etc.
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NOTE: The markers to the right, in red, have shown a faster mutation
rate then the average, therefore, if your mutations are in these
markers your match may be closer than if the mutations were in the
black markers. |
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H |
3 |
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G |
Y |
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C |
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A |
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6 |
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A |
C |
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7 |
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D |
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7 |
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9 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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0 |
T |
A |
A |
6 |
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0 |
Y |
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R |
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ID |
Earliest Documented Ancestor |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
Carmack Family Group 1 (CFG1) -Common Ancestor:
Cornelius Carmack, Born Abt 1681, MD |
12705 |
Cornelius Carmack 1681 |
MD |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
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12695 |
Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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13372 |
Cornelius Carmack 1681 |
MD |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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14147 |
Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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24075 |
Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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6725 |
Cornelius Carmack 1681 |
MD |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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12690 |
Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
33 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
10 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
35 |
37 |
11 |
12 |
Carmack Family Group 2 (CFG2) -Common Ancestor:
Levi Carmack, Born 4 Mar 1824, VA |
43778 |
Levi Carmack 1824 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
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43777 |
Levi Carmack 1824 |
VA |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
30 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
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Carmack Family Group 3 (CFG3) -Common Ancestor:
Unknown, NC |
14738 |
Furney Carmack 1810 |
NC |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
39 |
40 |
11 |
12 |
12691 |
Samuel B. Carmack 1808 |
NC |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
41 |
41 |
11 |
12 |
61583 |
John Carmack 1819 |
NC |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
41 |
41 |
11 |
12 |
12698 |
Fredrick Carmack 1814 |
NC |
R1b1 |
13 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
30 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
31 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
41 |
41 |
11 |
12 |
Carmack Family Group 4 (CFG4) -Common Ancestor:
Unknown, NJ |
45925 |
Arthur Carmack 1720 |
NJ |
R1b1 |
13 |
23 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
29 |
19 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
19 |
29 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
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Carmack Family Group 5 (CFG5) -Common Ancestor:
Unknown, TN |
N17983 |
Edward McCormack 1880 |
TN |
R1b1 |
13 |
26 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
29 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
25 |
15 |
18 |
30 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
17 |
37 |
38 |
12 |
12 |
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Carmack
Family Groups: I have organized
the results into groups that have close matches. Thus far we have 5 Carmack Family Groups.
These test participants are considered related if they have at least
10 of 12 markers, or 23 of 25 markers, or
33 of 37 markers that match exactly.
I have highlighted those markers that do not match within
each group.
FTDNA states that from their observation of 1000's of samples that some
markers change, or mutate,
at a faster rate than others. While that actual 'faster rate' has not yet been
definitively calculated, not all markers should be treated the same for
evaluation purposes.
The markers in the red
columns have shown a faster mutation rate then the average, and therefore
these markers are very helpful at splitting lineages into sub sets, or branches,
within family trees.
Explained another way, if you match exactly on all of the
markers except for one or a few of the markers that
have been determined mutate more quickly, then despite
the mutation this mismatch only slightly decreases the probability of two people
in your surname group of not sharing a recent common ancestor.
Using DNA Results to Find Ancestors
Most of us are researching our
Carmack ancestors -- trying to document at least one more generation back
in the chain. The difficulty is getting past brick walls created by lost, burned
or never-existing records of births, deaths, marriages etc. Hopefully our DNA
project will help you get past your brick wall. How can that happen?
Genetic genealogy can substantiate the known, paper genealogy and help prove
that two or more individuals, with the same surname, are connected by a common
ancestor.
Estimating when that common ancestor actually lived is left down to
mathematics and statistics. Studies show that although a mutation at any
particular marker is a random event, it is expected to change roughly once every
500 generations (based upon 25 years per generation).
It is like a ticking clock, although this DNA clock doesn't always chime right
on time.
The simple step is to find a match between your
Carmack DNA and that of another
Carmack family who has a documented family tree that precedes your own
documented tree. Then you can focus on the missing link between your family and
the family with matching DNA. The DNA results will not tell you who links your
tree and that of the family with matching DNA, but it will tell you that your
families have a common Carmack male ancestor -- what
geneticists call the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA).
What constitutes a match?
- For 12 markers: 8 or less is a non-relative; 9-10 means
only a small chance of a relationship; 11-12 means a possible relationship.
- For 25 markers: 20 or less is a non-relative; 21-22
means only a small chance of a relationship; 23-25 means a high probability of
a relationship.
- For 37 markers: 30 or less is a non-relative; 31-37,
please see this chart at
FTDNA.
Here is a Table showing the times back to the
Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA). Those numbers are based in the latest
results of the mutation rate study conducted by the University of Arizona. For
example, with 37/37 (all 37 markers match), there is a 50% probability that the
MRCA was no longer than 2 generations, and a 90% probability that the MRCA was
within the last 5 generations. Compare these with 25 and 12 -- with 25 markers,
there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 3 generations,
while with 12 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the
last 7 generations.
Probability for Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)
Number of matching markers |
50% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
|
90% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
|
95% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
|
11 of 12 |
17 |
39 |
47 |
12 of 12 |
7 |
23 |
29 |
23 of 25 |
11 |
23 |
27 |
24 of 25 |
7 |
16 |
20 |
25 of 25 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
35 of 37 |
6 |
12 |
14 |
36 of 37 |
4 |
8 |
10 |
37 of 37 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
The trick is to reduce the uncertainty in the
determination of that MRCA until you have identified the individual who is the
father of both of your family lines. The ideal process starts with a
verification of your own family line of DNA by having distant male
Carmack cousins take either the 12,
25, or 37marker DNA test. By proving that they both carry the exact same
Y chromosome DNA, you have a solid benchmark which you can compare with the
results from other
Carmack families who do the same.
As you find Carmack families
with matching DNA, you must map them to your own family tree and history. The
degree to which your DNA matches determines how far back you probably shared a
common ancestor.
As more Carmack males
participate in the DNA testing, the number of potential matches for your DNA
increases. The more matches you find, the closer you can pin down the MRCAs for
you and the matches that you find. Creating an ancestry map like the one in the
above figure will help you know when you have identified each MRCA.
Additional Comparison Data
This data was calculated from
http://www.mymcgee.com/tools/yutility.html
The following table includes all participants and shows
the genetic distance to each other. It's clear from this that the group in
rows 2-8 (the shaded green) are related to each other. Also, rows 10-12
are related to each other
and rows 9, 13 & 14 are individual Groups. These Groups are not
related to each other.
Genetic Distance |
ID |
m
o
d
a
l
|
1
2
7
0
5
C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
5
J
e
s
s
e
A
n
n
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
3
3
7
2
C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
4
1
4
7
J
e
s
s
e
A
n
n
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
2
4
0
7
5
J
e
s
s
e
A
n
n
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
6
7
2
5
C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
0
J
e
s
s
e
A
n
n
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
4
3
7
7
7
/
8
L
e
v
i
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
1
S
a
m
u
e
l
B
.
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
4
7
3
8
F
u
r
n
e
y
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
8
F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
4
5
9
2
5
A
r
t
h
u
r
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
N
1
7
9
8
3
E
d
w
a
r
d
M
c
C
o
r
m
a
c
k
|
modal |
37 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
8 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
12705 Cornelius Carmack |
1 |
25 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
12695 Jesse Ann Carmack |
0 |
1 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
13372 Cornelius Carmack |
0 |
1 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
14147 Jesse Ann Carmack |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
24075 Jesse Ann Carmack |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
6725 Cornelius Carmack |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
12690 Jesse Ann Carmack |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
43777/8 Levi Carmack |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
25 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
12691 Samuel B. Carmack |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
3 |
37 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
6 |
14738 Furney Carmack |
11 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
3 |
3 |
37 |
1 |
7 |
6 |
12698 Fredrick Carmack |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
25 |
7 |
7 |
45925 Arthur Carmack |
7 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
25 |
9 |
N17983 Edward McCormack |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
25 |
|
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested |
For the following comparison I only used Group 2
and Group 3
data as they are closely matched, but not close enough to claim related.
In this table is shows that ID 43777/8 is a Genetic Distance of 3 from ID 12691.
FTDNA states that these two are Probably Not Related based on 25
markers. Of interest is that IDs 12691 and 14738 have upgraded to 37
markers. ID 12691 is a Genetic Distance of 3 from 14738 but now FTDNA
states these two are Related. This difference is due to the
number of markers 34 out of 37 rather than 22 out of 25.
Genetic Distance |
ID |
m
o
d
a
l
|
4
3
7
7
7
/
8
L
e
v
i
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
1
S
a
m
u
e
l
B
.
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
4
7
3
8
F
u
r
n
e
y
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
8
F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
modal |
37 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
43777/8 Levi Carmack |
3 |
25 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
12691 Samuel B. Carmack |
0 |
3 |
37 |
3 |
1 |
14738 Furney Carmack |
3 |
3 |
3 |
37 |
1 |
12698 Fredrick Carmack |
1 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
25 |
|
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested |
Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor
(Years) |
ID |
m
o
d
a
l
|
4
3
7
7
7
/
8
L
e
v
i
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
1
S
a
m
u
e
l
B
.
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
4
7
3
8
F
u
r
n
e
y
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
8
F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
modal |
37 |
700 |
75 |
350 |
300 |
43777/8 Levi Carmack |
700 |
25 |
700 |
700 |
900 |
12691 Samuel B. Carmack |
75 |
700 |
37 |
350 |
300 |
14738 Furney Carmack |
350 |
700 |
350 |
37 |
300 |
12698 Fredrick Carmack |
300 |
900 |
300 |
300 |
25 |
0-225 Years |
250-475 Years |
500-725 Years |
750-975 Years |
|
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0028 to 0.0038
rates derived by Doug McDonald from the Sorenson database
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is 50% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated
- Average generaton: 25 years |
Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor
(Years) |
ID |
m
o
d
a
l
|
4
3
7
7
7
/
8
L
e
v
i
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
1
S
a
m
u
e
l
B
.
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
4
7
3
8
F
u
r
n
e
y
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
1
2
6
9
8
F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k
C
a
r
m
a
c
k
|
modal |
37 |
1450 |
275 |
725 |
875 |
43777/8 Levi Carmack |
1450 |
25 |
1450 |
1450 |
1775 |
12691 Samuel B. Carmack |
275 |
1450 |
37 |
725 |
875 |
14738 Furney Carmack |
725 |
1450 |
725 |
37 |
875 |
12698 Fredrick Carmack |
875 |
1775 |
875 |
875 |
25 |
0-225 Years |
250-475 Years |
500-725 Years |
750-975 Years |
|
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0028 to 0.0038
rates derived by Doug McDonald from the Sorenson database
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is 95% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated
- Average generaton: 25 years |
There have been
CARMACK researchers who dropped by this page since 19 October 2003.
|